Leanne Mollica, Mortgage Broker — My Mortgage Strategy
Serving Salmon Arm & the Shuswap Region, BC
Stop Waiting for the 2021 Rates to Return
Many buyers today are waiting for mortgage rates to fall back to the record-low levels seen in 2020–2022.
But those rates were driven by emergency conditions during the pandemic and are not considered “normal” from a historical perspective.
Here’s what mortgage rates have actually looked like over the past several decades in Canada:
| Year | Approx. 5-Year Fixed Rates |
|---|---|
| 1981–82 | 18–21% |
| 1990 | Low double digits (around 13%) |
| 1995 | 8–9% |
| 2000 | 7–8% |
| 2008 | 5.5–6% |
| 2025 | Discounted insured mortgage rates available in the high-3% to low-4% range (depending on qualification) |
Today’s rate environment is similar to long-term historical averages. It simply feels high because the last few years were unusually low.
What’s Happening in the Market Today
- The Bank of Canada’s overnight policy rate is currently 2.25%.
- This directly influences variable-rate mortgage products.
- Fixed-rate mortgages are driven primarily by 5-year Government of Canada bond yields and lender borrowing costs.
Earlier this fall, bond yields declined, helping 5-year fixed rates pull back from their peak. However, that downward pressure has eased, and some economists believe we may be nearing the bottom of this rate cycle.
If economic conditions strengthen or borrowing costs rise, fixed rates could trend upward again.
Forecasts vary, and nothing is guaranteed. But waiting for substantially lower rates may not be a reliable strategy.
What This Means for Buyers and Refinancers
Trying to time the mortgage market is difficult.
While it’s possible rates could fall slightly, there is also a real possibility they could move higher instead.
Waiting comes with risk:
- Higher rates could reduce affordability
- Increased buyer demand at lower rates could push home prices up
- Delays can affect qualification under the stress test
The more strategic approach is to plan around the rates that are available today — and build flexibility into your mortgage structure to protect against future changes.
A Strategic Mortgage Plan is More Important Than Rate-Chasing
A tailored mortgage strategy can:
- Protect your budget if rates shift
- Keep long-term affordability in focus
- Help you enter the right property at the right time
I can run personalized scenario comparisons — for example, stable rates versus moderate rate increases — so you can make informed decisions without guessing what the market will do next.
Book a Strategy Session
If you are considering a home purchase or refinance, now is an excellent time to review your options.
You bring the questions — I’ll bring the strategy.
Contact me to get started.